National Wildfire Risk Assessment

A wildfire risk assessment for the conterminous United States

Working with the Forest Service Fire and Aviation Management program, the Fire Modeling Institute (FMI) has been working toward completing a wildfire risk assessment for all National Forest System lands in the conterminous U.S. The first iteration of this assessment was completed in July 2017. It is known as the National Wildfire Risk Assessment for Forest Service lands, or NaWRA-FS for short.

This web page provides information about NaWRA-FS, including links to presentations and other documents describing the methods, results, and application of the assessment. This site is in development, so please check back periodically for updates.


Montage of graphics showing the risk assessment framework, a pie chart of relative importance weights, national maps of expected losses and expected benefits.

Audio and Video

Video file
National Risk Assessment Webinar

November, 2017 

MP4 Recording, approx. 1 hour, 65.8 MB

Select Publications & Products

Dillon, Gregory K. 2020. Results and application of the National Wildfire Risk Assessment. In: Hood, Sharon M.; Drury, Stacy; Steelman, Toddi; Steffens, Ron, [eds.]. Proceedings of the Fire Continuum-Preparing for the future of wildland fire; 2018 May 21-24; Missoula, MT. Proceedings RMRS-P-78. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 252-257.