The first comprehensive assessment of where public wildlands in the Western US potentially contribute wildfire exposure to communities.
Predicting wildfire disasters presents a major challenge to the field of risk science, especially when fires are propagated over long distances through diverse fuel types and complex terrain. A good example is in the western US were large tracts of public lands routinely experience large fires that spread from remote wildlands into developed areas and cause substantial structure loss and frequently fatalities as well. In this project we provide the first comprehensive assessment of where public wildlands in the western US potentially contribute wildfire exposure to communities in the 11 western US states and provide a framework for assessing cross-boundary wildfire exposure and a case study application in the western US. The case study provides detailed mapping and tabular decision support in web portals for prioritizing fuel management investments aimed at reducing wildfire exposure to communities located proximal to national forests. The methods from this research are also being used to respond to EO 13855: (i) Identify DOI- and USDA FS-administered lands ………where there is a high probability that wildfires would threaten people, structures, or other high-value assets, in order to direct and prioritize actions to meet land management goals and to protect communities.
Existing risk assessment technologies and frameworks measure in-situ risk and do not identify how risk is linked to the source in terms of the ignition location or spread through landscape fragmented by fuels, ownership, and other factors that can affect fire spread. In this project we use newer assessment methods developed by Forest Service researchers to explicitly measure and map wildland-community wildfire transmission and assess current exposure to communities in the western US. Using these methods, areas that propagate wildfires into communities can be identified and prioritized for fuel management.
How many communities potentially affected by future wildfires?
How many structures in these communities are exposed by wildfires?
How large are the community firesheds, i.e. the source area for wildfires that expose communities?
The products from this research are being used in the Scenario Investment Planning Platform to understand where fuel management can be leveraged to reduce cross boundary and community risk. The following graphics are Wildfire exposure to the wildland urban interface in the western US.
Top 50 communities exposed to wildfire in the western US by ignition source. Dot size indicates the magnitude of exposure to each community from each national forest.
This figure is taken from: Ager, A.A., Palaiologou, P., Evers, C., Day, M.A., Ringo, C., Short, K.C., 2019. Wildfire exposure to the wildland urban interface in the western US. Applied Geography 111, 102059. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.102059
Structure exposure for the 11 western US states from wildfires ignited on national forest land based on management capacity.Structure exposure is measured as the annual predicted structures affected using simulation outputs.
National forest land causing structure exposure to communities in the 11 western US states. Data filtered to show exposure ≥ 1 structures per year (fireshed). Areas of the fireshed that are available for mechanical treatments (manageable), are fire adapted and have forested fuel models are show in blue.
Products State based web portals
Other portals
Publications Ager, Alan A.; Day, Michelle A.; Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Houtman, Rachel M.; Ringo, Chris; Evers, Cody R. 2019. Cross-boundary wildfire and community exposure: A framework and application in the western U.S. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-392. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 36 p. Ager, Alan & Palaiologou, Palaiologos & Evers, Cody & Day, Michelle & Ringo, Chris & Short, Karen. (2019). Wildfire exposure to the wildland urban interface in the western US. Applied Geography. 111. 102059. 10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.102059. Evers, C., A. A. Ager, M. Nielsen-Pincus, P. Palaiologou, and K. Bunzel. 2019. Archetypes of community wildfire exposure from national forests of the Western US. Landscape and Urban Planning 182:55-66. Palaiologou, P., A. A. Ager, M. A. Day, R. Houtman, and A. M. G. Barros. 2019. Fine-scale assessment of cross-boundary wildfire events in the western United States. Natural Hazards in Earth System Science 19:1755-1777. Palaiologou, P., A. A. Ager, M. Nielsen-Pincus, C. Evers, and M. Day. 2019. Social vulnerability to large wildfires in the western USA. Landscape and Urban Planning 189:99-116. Ager, A. A., P. Palaiologou, C. R. Evers, M. A. Day, and A. M. G. Barros. 2018. Assessing transboundary wildfire exposure in the southwestern United States. Risk Analysis 38:2105-2127. Day, M. A., A. A. Ager, P. Palaiologou, and C. Ringo. 2018. Cross-boundary wildfire transmission in Oregon -- A quantitative transmission analysis. Final report to the Oregon Department of Forestry, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, National Fire Decision Support Center. Ager, A. A., C. Evers, M. A. Day, H. K. Preisler, A. M. G. Barros, and M. Nielsen-Pincus. 2017. Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance. PLoS ONE 12: e0172867. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0172867 |